A Grim Statistical History
Teams that take a 3-0 lead in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have an extraordinary success rate, winning 27 out of 28 series. The lone exception occurred in 1942, when the Toronto Maple Leafs orchestrated a historic comeback to defeat the Detroit Red Wings.
Out of those 28 series, 20 concluded with a sweep. The Florida Panthers aim to join that group, seeking to sweep the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games in 1998.
Even if the Edmonton Oilers manage to extend the series with a Game 4 victory, history remains daunting. Twenty-five of those 28 series ended in no more than five games. Despite these overwhelming odds, the Oilers retain their belief in a comeback.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers are currently 0-5-0 against the Panthers this season. In Game 3 on Thursday, Edmonton showed signs of life in the third period with scrappy goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod, cutting Florida's lead to 4-3.
However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was that the Oilers trailed 4-1 entering the third period—on home ice, in a must-win game, against a team that boasts a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
The Oilers unraveled during a disastrous 6:19 stretch in the second period, allowing Florida to score three goals. Edmonton had just tied the game at 1-all on a Warren Foegele breakaway.
A turnover by goalie Stuart Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to find Vladimir Tarasenko, who scored at 9:12, deflating the home crowd. The Panthers extended their lead to 3-1 at 13:57, thanks to tenacious forechecking by Matthew Tkachuk that forced a turnover from Darnell Nurse, enabling Sam Bennett to net his seventh goal of the playoffs. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring at 15:31, converting on a 2-on-1 chance that started deep inside the Oilers' attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
Edmonton's mistakes have piled up, but goals from their star players have not. Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have all found the back of the net. However, the team's top scorers—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—remain goalless in the series.
These five also run the Oilers' once-potent power play, which has been neutralized by Florida's penalty kill that remains 10-for-10 in the series. Edmonton's power play entered the series converting at over 37%, the best in the postseason.
McDavid has managed to get on the score sheet with assists on three of the Oilers' four goals in the series. He is on pace to become just the second player since 1967-68 to tally a point on at least half of his team's postseason goals, a distinction held exclusively by Wayne Gretzky for the Oilers in 1988. The other star players, however, have yet to score a point in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
The Oilers' star forward, Leon Draisaitl, expressed his frustration and sense of responsibility. "Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well, and just can’t seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," he said. Draisaitl admitted the team 'shot themselves in the foot' and made crucial mistakes that the Panthers capitalized on.
Despite the grim statistics, goaltender Stuart Skinner maintains optimism. "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil," he remarked.
Coach Kris Knoblauch supported that sentiment. "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room," Knoblauch stated, emphasizing that while there is frustration, there is also a firm belief in their ability to mount a comeback.
Skinner also noted the detrimental effect of giving the Panthers room to build momentum. "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don’t need to happen," he explained.
Draisaitl concluded with a focus on the team's strengths and the immediate objective: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It’s a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."