The Denver Nuggets, crowned the 2022/23 NBA champions, are set to face off against the Indiana Pacers on a brisk Tuesday night at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The action is scheduled to tip off at 7:00 p.m. ET, with Denver entering the contest as the favorites, laying 5 points.
Nuggets' Strong Season Continues
With a solid 30-14 record that positions them third in the Western Conference, the Nuggets have been demonstrating their championship pedigree throughout the season. Their recent form has been impressive, securing victories in four of their last five matchups and aiming for their third consecutive road win. Denver's offensive firepower was on full display when they faced the Washington Wizards, with Nikola Jokic delivering an exceptional performance of 42 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists.
Pacers Looking to Rebound
On the other side of the court, the Pacers hold a respectable 24-19 record, good for seventh in the Eastern Conference. However, their recent stretch has been challenging, with four losses in their last five games. Despite this slump, Indiana has shown resilience on their home court, winning five of their last six at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. They'll be seeking redemption after a recent defeat to the Phoenix Suns, where they fell short with a score of 117-110.
Injury Concerns for Both Teams
The health of the rosters could play a significant role in the upcoming game. Tyrese Haliburton's presence is uncertain due to a hamstring issue, which could be a substantial blow for the Pacers, considering his team-leading contributions in points and assists. Indiana may also miss the services of Isaiah Jackson and Andrew Nembhard, both listed as doubtful. The Nuggets aren't without their own concerns, as Vlatko Cancar, Collin Gillespie, Braxton Key, and Julian Strawther have all been ruled out. Nonetheless, there's a silver lining with Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon likely suiting up, both listed as probable.
Historical Edge
History seems to favor the visiting Nuggets, who have dominated the Pacers in their last seven encounters, including a 117-109 victory earlier this month. In that game, Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Porter each contributed 25 points, while Aaron Gordon added 20. Notably, Haliburton did not participate in the previous showdown, and his potential absence could again tilt the scales in Denver's favor. Indiana hasn't managed to overcome Denver since 2020, and they've stumbled in their last four home games against the Nuggets.
Betting Trends and Player Watch
The betting landscape presents a mixed bag for both teams. Denver's ATS (against the spread) record this season stands at 19-24-1, translating to a cover rate of 44.2%. This figure dips to 35.7% following a win and their road ATS record is a concerning 8-15-0. However, Denver's average margin of victory aligns with the spread, suggesting they could indeed cover the 5-point advantage. As away favorites, their cover rate is one-third, indicating some caution for bettors.
Conversely, Indiana boasts a more favorable ATS record of 24-18-2 for the 2023/24 season, covering 60% of their home games and holding a strong 5-2 record as home underdogs. This suggests that the Pacers could potentially outperform expectations despite being the underdogs.
Jokic, ranking 13th in points per game with 26.1 and fourth in the league for rebounds and assists, will undoubtedly be a focal point for the Pacers' defense. Murray, averaging 20.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists, also demands attention. For Indiana, the addition of Pascal Siakam from the Toronto Raptors bolsters their lineup; he impressed with 21 points in his debut against the Portland Trail Blazers.
As for the betting odds, Bet Rivers has the Nuggets priced at -175 on the moneyline, with a slight edge given to Denver at -5 (-105).
Final Thoughts
While Denver's ATS performance this season has been less than stellar, their consistent margin of victory and the prowess of players like Jokic and Murray make them formidable opponents. The Pacers, facing injury uncertainties and a rough patch in their recent performances, will need to leverage their home-court advantage and hope for significant contributions from their healthy roster to secure a win. With both teams eager to assert themselves, Tuesday's clash promises to be an enthralling encounter