At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins faced yet another heart-wrenching defeat, allowing a three-run lead to slip through their fingers and ultimately falling 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. The crushing blow came in the bottom of the eighth inning when Griffin Jax surrendered a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo.
A Season on the Brink
The Twins have now lost 18 of their last 27 games, a stretch that has severely jeopardized their postseason aspirations. Currently, they cling to the third AL wild-card spot, their lead dwindling to a precarious 1 1/2 games. As of September 5, FanGraphs had their postseason odds at a robust 95.4%. That confidence has since faded, now standing at a more uncertain 76.4%.
A significant factor in their struggles has been their inconsistent offense. In 12 of their last 27 games, the Twins failed to score more than three runs. Despite high expectations, their recent batting average during this stretch is a disappointing .236, complemented by a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking," lamented pitcher Pablo López. "Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
Offensive Woes
With the bases empty, the Twins are hitting an alarming .272, placing them among the worst in the league in this scenario. The absence of reliable hitters has contributed to their downfall, although Max Kepler is expected to make a return soon, which could provide a needed boost.
Manager Rocco Baldelli articulated the urgency of the situation. "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together," he stated. The bullpen, which once boasted a 3.84 ERA and was ranked tenth in win probability added (plus-3.41) through the first 123 games, has also deteriorated during this critical period. Over the last 27 games, the bullpen's ERA has ballooned to 5.47, and their win probability added has plummeted to a league-worst minus-2.75.
Pitching Pitfalls
The starting rotation hasn't fared any better. Over these 27 games, Twins starters have posted a 6.07 ERA, averaging just 4.38 innings per start. The team has played 17 games in the last 18 days, pushing their rotation to the brink of exhaustion. “It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," admitted Griffin Jax. This weariness has shown up in the late innings; in five of their last 18 losses, the Twins held the lead in the seventh inning or later, only to squander it. They were tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions.
In a move to stabilize their pitching, the Twins recently claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin, who had a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, is seen as a versatile addition. "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," said Derek Falvey, Twins' President of Baseball Operations.
Chasing the Playoffs
The race for the playoffs is far from over. The Detroit Tigers and the Seattle Mariners are both trailing the Twins by just two games. However, the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams. Yet, this slim advantage offers little comfort given that the Tigers have surged with a 23-10 record in their last 33 games. On a more positive note, key hitters Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown signs of life, combining for a .333 average with two doubles and a homer this month.
As the season teeters on the edge, the Twins must find a way to solidify both their pitching and batting. "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this," emphasized Rocco Baldelli. The road ahead is arduous, but if the Twins can rally, there's still hope for October baseball.