As the Diamondbacks gear up to face off against the Cubs at Wrigley Field this afternoon, fans can expect a closely contested matchup. Scheduled for 2:20 PM ET, the Diamondbacks come into this game as slight money line favorites at -106. Although both teams have had their ups and downs this season, each has shown flashes of brilliance in recent games.
Pitching Matchup
On the mound for the Cubs will be left-hander Justin Steele, who has emerged as a reliable option in their pitching rotation. Steele has made 14 starts this season, posting a 2-3 record with an impressive 2.71 ERA. Notably, Steele has delivered eight quality starts, indicating his ability to put his team in a good position to win more often than not. In his most recent outing, Steele pitched seven scoreless innings, underscoring his recent strong form. With a home ERA of 3.16 compared to a road ERA of 2.96, Steele will look to fortify the Cubs’ defense at home once again.
The Diamondbacks will counter with Ryne Nelson, who brings a 6-6 record and a 4.99 ERA into the game. While Nelson's overall numbers may not be as dominant as Steele's, he has been consistent in limiting damage, not allowing more than three earned runs in each of his last six starts. However, Nelson's WHIP of 1.42 and batting average against of .296 might signal potential vulnerabilities that the Cubs could exploit.
Diamondbacks' Recent Form
As the Diamondbacks arrive in Chicago, they hold a 49-48 overall record, placing them second in the NL West, seven games behind the Dodgers. Arizona has been in good form on the road lately, boasting a 4-1 record in their last five away games, complemented by a 4-1 run line record. Leading the Diamondbacks’ offensive charge are power hitters Christian Walker with 22 homers and Ketel Marte with 19 homers. However, the team recently experienced a setback, losing 8-7 to the Blue Jays despite leading by seven runs at one point.
Overall, the Diamondbacks have displayed a potent offense, averaging five runs per game – the second-best mark in MLB. Their overall run line record stands at 49-48, while games involving the Diamondbacks have averaged 9.8 runs this season. These stats contribute heavily to Arizona’s over/under record of 52-42.
Cubs' Performance
On the other side, the Cubs' season has been marked by inconsistency, leading to a 47-51 record. They currently sit fifth in the NL Central, 8.5 games behind the Brewers. Recent performances, however, have given Cubs fans reasons for optimism. With a 7-3 record in their last ten games and a 4-1 record in their last five home games, the Cubs are showing signs of a resurgence. At Wrigley Field, they sport a notable 9-5 record as home underdogs this year.
Individually, players like Nico Hoerner and Christopher Morel have been standout performers. Hoerner, in particular, has been on fire, hitting .378 over his last nine games. Morel, too, has displayed his power, with three homers in his last eight games. The Cubs as a team average 4.2 runs per game and carry an overall batting average of .235. These offensive statistics highlight their ability to potentially break through even against solid pitching.
Over/Under and Projections
Today's game has an over/under line set at 7.5 runs, and interestingly, both teams are currently on three-game over streaks. Historically, 84.5% of Diamondbacks games surpass the 7.5 run line, while 67.3% of Cubs games do the same. When the over/under line is set at 7.5, the Diamondbacks have a 6-4 record, whereas the Cubs hold a 12-10 record.
According to projections, Justin Steele is expected to record six strikeouts, while Ryne Nelson is anticipated to have four strikeouts. Steele, given his recent performances and overall statistics, is also favored to concede fewer runs than Nelson, further boosting the Cubs’ chances.
The prediction for this exciting clash stands at a narrow 5-4 victory for the Diamondbacks. With both teams in relatively good recent form and boasting potent offensive threats, fans can anticipate a thrilling encounter this afternoon at Wrigley Field.